Jeff McNeill

Talkin’ ’bout the future

Talking about the future has two senses, the first is along the lines of “just talk” as opposed to action. The second sense has talking as a part of bringing the future into being.

The best way to predict the future is to create it. –Peter Drucker

The Monk

There is a story somewhere which talks about a monk who was so devout and discerning that he only spoke the truth. He was never drawn into saying anything that wasn’t true. He never speculated, dissembled, or told anything less than what was absolutely correct. Needless to say, he didn’t have many opportunities for conversation; people are fond of their illusions.

It came to pass that the relation between the speech of the monk and the truth of the world was powerfully entwined. When the monk would talk about the future it would become true.

The Futurologist

The futurologist is something of the opposite of the monk. Most futurologists use what is called scenario planning to try and understand the future. A scenario is a description of a “possible future”, in the lexicon of futurology. Good scenarios are vivid and compelling, much like a good story.

As the futurologists rely on the notion of possible worlds, it almost statistically impossible for a given scenario to actually come true. The futurologist necessarily lies. Of course the lie is meant to “tell the truth” of the future, much like the famous definition of painting.

The Possible

However, the future doesn’t exist in our common sense meaning of the term. The truth that is being told is rather about the possible worlds notion of the future. In possible worlds, the future can be understood as various possibilities, not as an emergent actuality.

Possible worlds do not have a clear relationship to an actual, emergent future. Of course there is likely a feedback mechanism between talking about the future (future possibilities) and which possibilities may become more likely through those conversations.

Perception of the Future

Scenario planning in organizations was pioneered in Shell Oil. They credit their planning of scenarios with sensitizing their management to what was happening during the oil embargo in the 1970s. The unrestricted access to oil fields by oil companies was unquestioned at the time. One scenario, though considered unlikely, was that there would be restricted access at less favorable terms by the sovereign nations who controlled the oil fields. Shell was able to adjust their organizatinal strategy (stop building tankers and refineries, switch resources to exploration activities).

This approach makes scenario planning and perhaps other methods of futurology as adaptive responses to changing environments. So far so good. This approach understands the future as a changing environment that the organization must adapt to in order to survive and thrive.

The world now knows, more clearly than ever before, that the possibilities of the future astound us, even when we know that to be the case. The day before the election, Uri Avnery wrote in the Bangkok Post:

In a world in which a person like Barack Hussein Obama can appear from nowhere and advance within a few years to the highest levels of world politics, nothing is predictable–and therefore everything is possible.

Talking helps Thinking

Talking about the future, in semi-structured approaches such as the futurologists scenarios, helps us think and understand future possible environments. These are fictions that train the mind, much like story problems in algebra class.

But how do we take the next step from thinking to action? How can we engage with the real, felt future?

The goal is not to understand the world but to change it. –Karl Marx

End of part 2, part 3 to follow…

Any future must and will actually come from places like Manila and Bangkok. At the very least it will find a home there. The present discourse around futurology is predominantly driven and reflected of the developed world. The future is a developed future along the trajectory of current developed nations. And thereby leaves the most dynamic, diverse, and different futures off of the table.

A bit of reflection will reveal how much we know this to be a mistake.

• The current future was created by developing countries. In other words, developed nations emerged through development. Development, however, is far from a specific trajectory.
• The developed world is largely stagnating in terms of population and economic growth. Of the G7, countries are shrinking in population or encouraging massive migration from the developing world. China is entering this situation as well. The future will come from places such as Brazil, Vietnam, India, Thailand, South Africa, and Indonesia
• Greater economic connections between countries is seen as the best way to stabilize and manage risks in the global economic environment.
• The developing world resembles the developed world only insofar as it wants to, and only insofar as the viewpoint is from the perspective of the developed world.
• Most importantly, looking to the future is about trying to understand change, what will be different. And what will be different, even in the most hegemonic approach, is how things will be different in the integration of developing markets and political systems.

The developed countries are shrinking in relative population and power. Why would the future belong only to those aging countries or be made in their image?

Hello and aloha,

This is a brief update and holiday wishes. I am in Thailand and have been since Nov 2. This followed on 3 months in Vancouver and Victoria, British Columbia, which was nice and enjoyable. I am currently in Chiang Mai and have been here after a week in Bangkok. The Bangkok airport closure has only affected me by thinning out the tourists in Chiang Mai, and there are no safety issues.

As far as travelling, I have been doing the same thing I do whereever I am, which is teaching and taking classes online. Instead of being on vacation, I just happen to be living in a foreign country.

There have also been some interesting marketing consulting opportunities regarding cross-cultural issues in the Chiang Mai market, with web and traditional publishing and translation issues. Intriguing and quite different when much of the workforce is not online, and a certain portion of it is strictly speaking illiterate in any language (though multi-lingual in speaking).

As you know, this decision to become nomadic was one forced by rising rental prices in Hawaii. I am very fortunate to be where I am, and am thankful that I can not afford to live in my own country. Why thankful? Simply because traveling is a great passion and a wonderful learning experience. The trick to traveling is to make friends wherever you go, and to slow down and hang out with local people. At least, that is what I find the most interesting and engaging.

One opportunity that has arisen recently, since the school semester is at an end, is for me to spend 10 days in the Vipassana meditation center at Wat Rampoeng. I will be there from 16-26 of December. I will not be available for any communication during that time.

After that I will be heading to Cambodia to visit Angkor Wat and hang out in a few places. Originally I was going to head over to Vietnam but I have put those plans on hold and will reenter Thailand before the spring semester begins, and stay in Chiang Mai for the first few months of 2009. I want to have a stable base for getting the semester underway with teaching and taking classes, and have another business opportunity to pursue as well. At that point the schedule has not been worked out, but I am thinking about Sri Lanka around March or April, and then up to northern India for the summer.

I hope you have had an awesome 2008 and wish you the best in this holiday season and for the coming new year.

I have been using my EeePC 1000H (WinXP, 2gb RAM, 80gb HDD) for the past month, with dedicated use the past two weeks. My use is mainly on-battery with wifi. Here are my findings:

Smallest Practical

The main advantage to this device is that it is about as small as a computer one wants to use as a complete computer. The screen is 10.2″ and the keyboard is smaller than standard, so this pushes the envelope in acceptable interfaces, however it is as good as it gets without upgrading to a 12″ screen or downgrading to a more hunt-and-peck compatible 8.9″ screen. The MSI Wind also has this footprint (see head-to-head MSI Wind vs. Asus EeePC 100H).

I imagine that an 11″ or some kind of futuristic folding screen, such as below, will make this obsolete. For now, it works quite well.

Keyboard

I do have more typing errors with the keyboard, however it is not unusable or too annoying. Having tried the Asus and Dell Mini 8.9″ model keyboards, the 10.2 screen form factor provides a more usable option. One problem is that there is no visual indicator for the Caps Lock, and it sits (as usual) perilously between the tab and the shift key, both much used.

Trackpad

There are well-known issues with the trackpad buttons being too firm for clicking. However, the trackpad allows for finger-tap button-clicking as well as multi-touch. Not bad. I plug in a full-sized microsoft usb optical mouse most of the time. Am considering switching to a bluetooth mouse.

Wireless support

The EeePC 1000H supports wifi (802.11a/b/g/n) and bluetooth. I have connected over 802.11n networks and they are very speedy.

A handy software device controller in the Windows system tray allows for turning on and off the wifi, webcam, bluetooth, and switching between the 1024×600 and 1024×768 (which is a scrolling interface). This is a great utility, though dedicated buttons (as well as dedicated audio buttons) would be better.

Media

There is a great SD Card reader. I use a MicroSD Card adapter and just switch between two MicroSD cards in my cell phone/camera. That is way faster than any usb or bluetooth connector and software. Call me old school here.

USB

Three, count-em, three USB.

Screen and Video

The screen is sharp and bright. A great screen for watching videos on a desk with another person, or on a lap. My settings are the 1024×600 with top refresh and colors, with fonts at 120% size. This is pretty good and only causes problems on some websites (vertical scrolling) and larger documents. Use of full-screen in Firefox 2 works pretty well.

One issue that arose has to do with the windows dock. After much experimentation, I have set the doc to the left-hand side of the screen with auto-hide turned on. Another issue is that many software interfaces for the web have been written for a 768 width and do not work with 600. Since there is the toggle utility mentioned above, it is not a huge annoyance. However, I would caution all developers to consider 600 as the more appropriate maximum width and consider that the widescreen is here to stay, 4:3, buh bye.

I have not used the external VGA connector, but the video card can support display across multiple monitors and a wide selection of resolutions on external monitors. Since this is largely a low-power shared-memory Intel video card, it is no surprise that a quick foray into Second Life was a rather painful experience (though it did install and run). On the other hand, Google Earth works acceptably well.

Audio

Audio is not loud enough in general, and the speaker placement at the bottom front of the computer is trouble, especially when placed on a lap. However, the sound quality is pretty great when using headphones. There is a bunch of equalizer and noise reduction setting options, including various Dolby technologies. Using the Creative Labs EP-630s (a great sounding, tangle-free earbud) produces a great sound experience.

The microphone built into the case just below the screen is flawed. Any times I have used it has produced unacceptable results. This forces me to use a headphone with microphone, which makes everything much better.

There is another issue that has the sound not working after waking up from sleep mode. Reinstallation of the latest Asus drivers fixes this.

Webcam

The webcam I have had mixed results with. Not the best video, but in certain settings, good lighting, and not a lot of motion, it can work well.

Battery

I get about 5 hours with wifi on, and 6 hours with it turned off. This does not include primarily use of video. I think it drops down to 4 hours or so in just viewing video. Not sure about that. Basically, this blows away anything I have had in the past (except the NEC 770, which could last 6 hours, but ran Windows CE and had a RAM drive). The battery recharges fairly quickly. Sorry that I don’t have exact times on this, I haven’t beenn rigorously testing. But it charges faster than it discharges.

Bottom Line

This is a game changer. Apparently Asus has sold a whole lot of these, and there is no end in sight. There are many other models out there, such as Acer, MSI, and now Dell, as well as a bunch of other lesser-known brands. As a traveler I am seeing quite a few of these and their smaller brothers and cousins everywhere I go. Some are as low as $300. I purchased my Asus EeePC 1000H for $504 with shipping and an upgrade to 2gb ram. A similar model (with bigger hard drive) was available in Chiang Mai, Thailand for about $550 USD with tax.

Kao Nah Bpet - 40 Baht, originally uploaded by jeffmcneill.

Duck over rice, yum! This is about 50 meters from my lodging in Sukhumvit, Soi 38, Bangkok, Thailand

It is ~33 Thai Baht to 1 USD. That makes this a $1.20 dish.